07 Mar 2019

PEI Greens show lead over governing Liberals as provincial election looms

  • Liberal popular support declines.
  • PC Party shows strength under new leader.
  • One-half of Islanders still satisfied with performance of MacLauchlan government.

March 7, 2019: The Green Party of Prince Edward Island appears to have a clear lead in popular support over the governing Liberals, whose own popularity is slipping at the start of an election year, according to the most recent survey conducted by Corporate Research Associates Inc.

Among decided PEI voters, 38% would support the Greens led by Peter Bevan-Baker if a provincial election were held today (compared to 37% in November). Meanwhile, 29% would vote for the Progressive Conservatives led by newly-chosen leader Dennis King (up from 20%), 27% would back the Liberals led by Premier Wade MacLauchlan (down from 36%), and 4% would support the New Democrats led by Joe Byrne (compared to 6%).

(The swings in Liberal and PC popular support should be treated with caution, due to the limited sample size of decided voters in this latest survey.*) One-quarter of the electorate, 26%, is undecided about who to vote for, 5% refuse to state their preference and 3% say they do not plan to vote.

Bevan-Baker also appears to be the distinct favourite in terms of which party leader Islanders prefer as premier, with 37% favouring the Green Party leader (unchanged from November). Twenty percent prefer Liberal leader Wade MacLauchlan (down from 24%), 15% favour Dennis King, who was only elected PC leader in February (compared with 12%), and 2% back NDP leader Joe Byrne (compared to 4%). Nineteen percent of voters don’t know who their preferred leader is, and 5% favour none of the listed options.

Support for the Liberals has also slipped when measured in terms of satisfaction with the overall performance of the MacLachlan government. One-half of Islanders, 51%, express satisfaction with the government, while 40% express dissatisfaction (compared with 57% satisfaction and 38% dissatisfaction in November). Nine percent say they either don’t know or have no opinion on the matter.

These results are part of the CRA Atlantic Quarterly®, an independent telephone survey of Atlantic Canadians, and are based on a sample of 301 adult Prince Edward Islanders, conducted from February 4 to 24, 2019, with overall results accurate to within ± 5.7 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times. *(The sample of 202 decided voters is accurate to within ± 6.9 percentage points, 95 times out of 100.)

Corporate Research Associates (CRA), www.cra.ca, is one of Canada’s leading public opinion and market research companies. Founded in 1978, CRA is dedicated to providing clients with state-of-the-art research and strategic consulting services. Follow us on Twitter @CRAInsight.

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For more information, please contact:

Margaret Brigley, CEO and Partner, CRA at (902) 493-3830, mbrigley@cra.ca

or

Richard Foot, Manager, Atlantic Quarterly, at (902) 493-3826, rfoot@cra.ca

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Amanda Bates