11 Dec 2018
PEI Greens and Liberals neck-and-neck in voter support heading into election year
- Green Party maintaining 2018 support, but not widening gap with Liberals.
- More than half of Islanders are satisfied with performance of government under Premier MacLauchlan.
- Green leader Peter Bevan-Baker holds edge in leadership preference.
December 11, 2018: Four months after vaulting narrowly ahead of Prince Edward Island’s Liberals, the Green Party remains in a statistical tie with the governing party heading into an election year on the Island, according to the most recent survey conducted by Corporate Research Associates Inc.
Among decided voters, 37% would vote for the Greens if an election were held today (compared to 38% in August 2018 and 33% in May 2018). The Liberal Party has 36% support (compared with 35% in August and 34% in May). At the end of 2017, the Liberals stood at 37% while the Greens enjoyed only 25% support – illustrating the growth in Green popularity over the past 12 months. The PEI Progressive Conservatives remain at 20% support today (compared to 20% in August and 26% in May), while the NDP have 6% support (compared to 7% in both August and May).
Nearly one-quarter of Island voters remain undecided (23%, compared to 20% in August), while 6% refuse to state a preference and 3% either support none of the listed parties, or do not plan to vote.
The Liberals under Premier Wade MacLauchlan enjoy majority support in terms of government satisfaction, with 57% of Islanders saying they are satisfied with the performance of the MacLauchlan regime (up from 49% three months ago). Only 38% say they are dissatisfied, down from 48% in August.
However, Green leader Peter Bevan-Baker enjoys a considerable edge over MacLauchlan in terms of leadership, with 37% preferring Bevan-Baker as premier (compared with 38% in August) and 24% preferring MacLauchlan (25% in August). NDP leader Joe Byrne is preferred by 4% (5% in August). The PCs are currently without an elected leader, after James Aylward stepped down in September. Two in 10 Islanders (18%) don’t know which leader they prefer, while 4% won’t endorse any of the listed options.
These results are part of the CRA Atlantic Quarterly®, an independent telephone survey of Atlantic Canadians, and are based on a sample of 604 adult Prince Edward Islanders, conducted from November 2 to 19, 2018, with overall results accurate to within ± 4.0 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.
Corporate Research Associates (CRA), www.cra.ca, is one of Canada’s leading public opinion and market research companies. Founded in 1978, CRA is dedicated to providing clients with state-of-the-art research and strategic consulting services. Follow us on Twitter @CRAInsight.
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