12 Jun 2006

PCs Take the Lead in Voting Intentions

SAINT JOHN: The ruling PCs lead the opposition Liberals in voter support for the first time since August 2003, according to the most recent survey conducted by Corporate Research Associates Inc. Presently, more than four in ten (45%, up from 38% in February 2006) New Brunswickers back the Progressive Conservatives, while four in ten (39%, down from 45%) support the Liberals.  Support for the NDP has declined by 6 percentage points to 9 percent.  Eight percent (up from 2% three months ago) of those surveyed support none of these parties, do not plan to vote, or favour others, while the number of New Brunswick residents who are currently undecided or refuse to state a preference is unchanged at 32 percent.

Satisfaction with the performance of the Progressive Conservative government led by Premier Bernard Lord has not changed in the past three months.  Presently, approximately six in ten residents (58%, unchanged from three months ago) are satisfied with the government’s performance.  More than one-third of New Brunswickers (35%, compared with 36%) meanwhile, are dissatisfied.  Seven percent (compared with 6%) have no definite opinion on this matter.

Compared with three months ago, New Brunswickers are more likely to select PC leader Bernard Lord as their choice for Premier.  Specifically, four in ten (40%, up from 33%) name Lord in this regard, while three in ten (29%, compared with 31%) prefer Liberal leader Shawn Graham.  Backing for NDP leader Allison Brewer is stable at 6 percent (compared with 7% three months ago).  Five percent (down from 9% in February) of New Brunswickers like none of these leaders or prefer others, and 19 percent (unchanged) are undecided at this time.

These results are part of the CRA Atlantic Quarterly, an independent survey of Atlantic Canadians, and are based on a sample of 803 New Brunswickers, conducted from May 17 to June 6, 2006, with results accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.

For more information, please contact: Don Mills, President and CEO at (902) 722-3100.

CRA Atlantic Quarterly – Spring 2006

New Brunswick Political Results

Sample:  803 New Brunswickers (18 years plus)
Interview Dates: May 17 to June 6, 2006
Margin of Sampling Error: ±3.5 percentage points (95% confidence level)

How satisfied are you with the overall performance of the provincial government led by Premier Bernard Lord?

May 2005 August 2005 November 2005 February 2006 May 2006
Completely satisfied5%4%5%9%6%
Mostly satisfied46%43%45%49%52%
Mostly dissatisfied29%33%28%28%24%
Completely dissatisfied12%14%14%8%11%
Don’t know/No answer/Neither8%6%8%6%7%

If an election were held today in New Brunswick, for which party would you vote?

PartyMay 2005 August 2005 November 2005 February 2006 May 2006
Liberal Party41%40%47%45%39%
Progressive Conservative Party37%34%34%38%45%
New Democratic Party14%14%12%15%9%
None/Do not plan to vote/Other8%12%8%2%8%
TOTAL DECIDED VOTE100% 100% 101% 100% 101%
Undecided/No answer36%32%38%32%32%

Which one of the following individuals would you most prefer as Premier of New Brunswick?

LeaderMay 2005 August 2005 November 2005 February 2006 May 2006
Bernard Lord35%31%33%33%40%
Shawn Graham31%29%33%31%29%
Next leader/Allison Brewer8%9%8%7%6%
None of the above/Other6%12%5%9%5%
Don’t know/No answer19%19%20%19%19%

Amanda Bates