07 Oct 2013

Nova Scotia 2013 Provincial Election Polling: Commentary

Strong support remains for Liberal party, despite gains by the PCs and NDP.

Through the poll conducted by Corporate Research Associates Inc. on behalf of the Chronicle Herald, results clearly show that while support for the Liberals declined over the last week of the campaign from historically high levels (especially in a three-party race), the Liberals remain in majority support territory.

The decline in support for the Liberals in the past week has mainly benefited the Tories, indicating that the mood in Nova Scotia is clearly to replace the NDP government with another.

In the last three days of polling (October 1 – 3), results showed 47% support for the Liberal party, followed by 31% for the NDP and 20% PC. This represents a decline in support for the Liberal party during the last week of The Chronicle Herald poll, though indications still strongly show support for change.

Stephen McNeil continues to be the preferred choice for Premier with a comfortable lead over the other party leaders (34% compared with 23% Dexter and 14% Baillie), indicating that Mr. McNeil has fared relatively well under the constant attacks by both the NDP and the PCs.

Based on the current levels of support, our projections suggest the Liberals should win around 30 seats, while the NDP will slip to around a dozen seats with the PCs winning less than ten.

Another area that we have assessed public opinion on is likelihood of voting. Using a conservative estimate, we project that fewer than 60% of eligible voters will actually vote (generally consistent with the last election at 58%). Election Day forecast of rain could also impact Nova Scotians’ turnout at the polls.

For further comment, please contact CRA at 1-888-414-1336.


CRA Corporate Research Associates