11 Dec 2018

NB Liberals remain most popular party, despite recent election loss

  • One-third of New Brunswickers support Liberal Party, more than two months after defeat.
  • Survey results closely match popular vote captured by parties on September 24.
  • Electorate remains volatile, with one-quarter undecided.

December 11, 2018: The New Brunswick Liberal Party is maintaining its lead in popular support, despite having narrowly lost theSeptember election to the Progressive Conservatives, according to the latestsurvey conducted by Corporate Research Associates Inc.

Among decided voters, 35% support the Liberals (compared to 50% in August 2018), while 30% support the PC Party (unchanged from August). The Green Party has the support of 17% (up from 7%), the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick is backed by 12% (up from 6%) and the NDP is supported by 6% (compared to 7%).

The latest survey also shows that only two months after casting ballots on September 24, one quarter of New Brunswickers (23%) are undecided about which party they would vote for if another election were held today, signaling volatility among a significant minority of voters. Meanwhile, 7% refuse to state which party they support, and 4% do not plan to vote.

CRA’s results correspond closely to the popular vote captured by each party in September. Decided support for the Liberals sits at 35% today (while the party won 38% of the popular vote), the PCs sit at 30% (and won 32% in the popular vote), the Greens – showing some sign of growth – are at 17% (and won 12%), the PANB sits at 12% (and won 13%) and the NDP sits at 6% (and won 5%).

In terms of which party leader New Brunswickers would most like to have as premier, outgoing Liberal leader Brian Gallant sits in a virtual tie with PC Premier Blaine Higgs as the most preferred option. Gallant is the choice of 25% (compared to 35% in August) while Higgs is preferred by 22% (compared to 23%). David Coon of the Green Party is preferred as premier by 17% (up from 8%), PANB leader Kris Austin is the choice of 10% (compared to 6%) and Jennifer McKenzie is preferred by 5% (unchanged). Sixteen percent are undecided on the question of leadership, while 6% want none of the listed choices.

The survey also assessed opinion regarding the performance of the previous Gallant government up to the announcement of his resignation on November 2. New Brunswickers are generally split, with half being satisfied (48%, compared to 50% in August) and 42% dissatisfied (unchanged). Another 8% did not know and 2% were neither satisfied nor dissatisfied.

These results are part of the CRA Atlantic Quarterly®, an independent telephone survey of Atlantic Canadians, and are based on a sample of 800 adult New Brunswickers, conducted from November 1 to 24, 2018, with overall results accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times. 

Corporate Research Associates (CRA), www.cra.ca, is one of Canada’s leading public opinion and market research companies. Founded in 1978, CRA is dedicated to providing clients with state-of-the-art research and strategic consulting services. Follow us on Twitter @CRAInsight.

                                                                                                    ###         

For more information, please contact:

Don Mills, CRA Chairman and CEO at (902) 493-3838, dmills@cra.ca

Margaret Brigley, CRA President and COO at (902) 493-3830, mbrigley@cra.ca

Ce communiqué de presse est également offert en français.


Amanda Bates