05 Jun 2006

Momentum Shifts in Provincial Election

HALIFAX: A virtual collapse in support for the Liberal party has transformed the provincial election into a close two-party race, according to the most recent survey conducted by Corporate Research Associates Inc between May 23 and June 4 2006. Nonetheless, if the election were to be held today, it is probable that the Tories would win re-election with an outside chance of a majority government.  Interestingly, support for the NDP over the past week has been increasing both for the party overall and its leader, Darrell Dexter, leading to the possibility of the first NDP government in Nova Scotia’s history, although this possibility is limited by the concentration of support for the party in Metro Halifax.

Among decided and leaning voters, the ruling PCs have the support of approximately four in ten (38%) residents, while 36 percent of Nova Scotians back the NDP.  The Liberals have the backing of two in ten (20%) decided residents.  Six percent of decided and leaning voters state they support none of these parties, do not plan to vote, or favour others, while the number of residents who are undecided or refuse to state a preference stands at 15 percent.

Backing for the NDP remains highest in the Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM) (47%), with the Liberals performing best in Cape Breton (29%), although the Liberals no longer lead in voter support in this region (PC support is 33%, NDP support is 34%).  The Conservatives, meanwhile, receive the highest level of support in mainland Nova Scotia outside of HRM (46%).

Looking at preference for Premier, PC leader Rodney MacDonald (36%) and NDP leader Darrell Dexter (34%) are in a virtual tie, with Liberal leader Francis MacKenzie coming in third with 13 percent support. More than one in ten Nova Scotians (15%) are undecided in terms of leader preference, while the remainder prefer none of these leaders or name another person (2%).

These results are part of the CRA Atlantic Quarterly, an independent, quarterly survey of Atlantic Canadians.

For more information, please contact: Don Mills, President and CEO at (902) 722-3100.

CRA Atlantic Quarterly – Spring 2006

Nova Scotia Political Results

May 13-May 22:
Sample Size: 577, Margin of Sampling Error: +/-4.1 percentage points (95 % confidence level)
May 23-June 4:
Sample Size: 572, Margin of Sampling Error: +/-4.1 percentage points (95 % confidence level)

How satisfied are you with the overall performance of the provincial government led by Premier Rodney MacDonald?

May 2005 Aug 2005 Nov 2005 Feb 2006 May 13 – 22, 2006May 23 –
Jun 4 2006
Completely satisfied5%4%7%6%5%6%
Mostly satisfied56%49%53%58%53%51%
Mostly dissatisfied25%26%23%11%16%18%
Completely dissatisfied8%11%10%5%5%5%
Don’t know/No answer/Neither7%9%8%20%20%20%

If a provincial election were held today in Nova Scotia, for which party would you vote? (Note: May results include decided and leaning voters)

PartyMay 2005 Aug 2005 Nov 2005 Feb 2006 May 13 – 22, 2006May 23 –
Jun 4 2006
PC Party36%31%35%36%34%38%
Liberal Party27%26%31%27%30%20%
NDP30%32%28%29%27%36%
None/Do not plan to vote/Other7%12%7%8%9%6%
TOTAL DECIDED VOTE100% 101% 101% 100% 100% 100%
Undecided/No answer36%35%35%30%18%15%

Which of the following individuals would you most prefer as Premier of Nova Scotia?

LeaderMay 2005 Aug 2005 Nov 2005 Feb 2006 May 13 -22, 2006May 23 –
Jun 4 2006
John Hamm/Next leader/Rodney MacDonald34%29%20%36%33%36%
Darrell Dexter28%26%25%23%29%34%
Francis MacKenzie18%17%19%16%16%13%
None/Other3%6%9%3%5%2%
Don’t know/No answer16%21%28%22%18%15%

CRA