15 Sep 2015

Gap narrows between NDP and Liberals in Atlantic Canada

NDP support continues to increase in the Atlantic Provinces.
• Support for Mulcair climbs at the expense of Trudeau.
• Majority of Atlantic Canadians remain dissatisfied with the performance of the federal Conservative government.

HALIFAX, NS September 15, 2015: Support for the federal New Democratic Party (NDP) has increased once again this quarter, according to the most recent survey of Atlantic Canadians conducted by Corporate Research Associates Inc.

Four in ten decided and leaning voters in Atlantic Canada support the Liberal Party of Canada (40%, compared with 43% decided voters three months ago), while one-third prefer the NDP (33%, compared with 29% decided voters). Meanwhile, backing for the Conservative Party of Canada is consistent with last quarter (22%, compared with 24% decided voters), while four percent of decided and leaning Atlantic Canadians prefer the Green Party of Canada (unchanged). One-quarter (25%, down from 41%) of residents in the region are undecided, refuse to state a preference, or do not plan to vote.

Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper’s popularity currently stands at 17 percent (compared with 19% in May 2015). Meanwhile, Justin Trudeau of the Liberal Party is preferred by three in ten Atlantic Canadians (29%, down from 36%), while preference for Thomas Mulcair of the NDP increased to one-quarter (27%, up from 22%), and Elizabeth May of the Green Party is preferred by seven percent (up from 5%).

“While there is a continuing narrowing of the gap between the Liberals and the NDP across Atlantic Canada, the movement in voter support is quite different within each of the individual provinces,” said Don Mills, Chairman and CEO of Corporate Research Associates. “For example, support for the Conservatives in New Brunswick is holding up better than the rest of the region, while the Liberal support in Nova Scotia is actually strengthening.”

A majority of Atlantic Canadians continue to be dissatisfied with the current federal government. Two-thirds of residents (66%, as compared to 63% in May 2015) are dissatisfied in this regard, while one-quarter are satisfied (26%, compared with 28%), and eight percent do not offer a definite opinion (unchanged).

These results are part of the CRA Atlantic Quarterly®, an independent, quarterly survey of Atlantic Canadians, and are based on a sample of 1521 adult Atlantic Canadians 18 years of age or older, conducted from August 10 to September 2, 2015, with overall results accurate to within ± 2.5 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.

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CRA Corporate Research Associates