07 Mar 2006

Gap In Voter Support Between Pcs And Liberals Narrow

SAINT JOHN: Satisfaction with the performance of the Progressive Conservative government led by Premier Bernard Lord has improved for the second consecutive quarter, according to the most recent survey conducted by Corporate Research Associates Inc. Presently, approximately six in ten residents are completely (9%, up from 5% three months ago) or mostly (49%, compared with 45%) satisfied with the government’s performance.  Close to four in ten, meanwhile, are completely (8% down from 14%) or mostly (28%, unchanged) dissatisfied.  Six percent (compared with 8%) have no definite opinion on this matter.

The gap in voting intentions has narrowed significantly between the PCs and the Liberals over the past three months, Presently, more than four in ten (45%, compared with 47% in November 2005) New Brunswickers back the opposition Liberals, while approximately four in ten (38%, compared with 34%) support the ruling Progressive Conservatives.  Support for the NDP is stable at 15 percent (compared with 12%).  Two percent (down from 8% three months ago) of those surveyed support none of these parties, do not plan to vote, or favour others, and the number of New Brunswick residents who are currently undecided or refuse to state a preference has decreased by 6 percentage points and presently stands at 32 percent.

PC leader Bernard Lord (33%, unchanged from November 2005) and Liberal leader Shawn Graham (31%, compared with 33%) remain virtually tied in terms of personal popularity.  Backing for NDP leader Allison Brewer stands at 7 percent (compared with 8% three months ago).  Nine percent (up from 5% in August) of New Brunswickers like none of these leaders or prefer others, and 19 percent (compared with 20%) are undecided at this time.

These results are part of the CRA Atlantic Quarterly, an independent, quarterly survey of Atlantic Canadians, and are based on a sample of 401 New Brunswickers, conducted from February 17 to March 2, 2006, with results accurate to within ±4.9 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.

For more information, please contact: Don Mills, President and CEO at (902) 421-1336.

CRA Atlantic Quarterly – Winter 2006

New Brunswick Political Results

Sample:  401 New Brunswickers (18 years plus)
Interview Dates: February 17 to March 2, 2006
Margin of Sampling Error: ±4.9 percentage points (95% confidence level)

How satisfied are you with the overall performance of the provincial government led by Premier Bernard Lord?

February 2005May 2005August 2005November 2005February 2006
Completely satisfied4%5%4%5%9%
Mostly satisfied49%46%43%45%49%
Mostly dissatisfied27%29%33%28%28%
Completely dissatisfied12%12%14%14%8%
Don’t know/No answer/Neither8%8%6%8%6%

If an election were held today in New Brunswick, for which party would you vote?

PartyFebruary 2005May 2005August 2005November 2005February 2006
Liberal Party43%41%40%47%45%
Progressive Conservative Party36%37%34%34%38%
New Democratic Party13%14%14%12%15%
None/Do not plan to vote/Other8%8%12%8%2%
TOTAL DECIDED VOTE100% 100% 100% 101% 100%
Undecided/No answer34%36%32%38%32%

Which one of the following individuals would you most prefer as Premier of New Brunswick?

LeaderFebruary 2005May 2005August 2005November 2005February 2006
Bernard Lord30%35%31%33%33%
Shawn Graham33%31%29%33%31%
Next leader/Allison Brewer10%8%9%8%7%
None of the above/Other9%6%12%5%9%
Don’t know/No answer18%19%19%20%19%

CRA