05 Jun 2019

Federal Liberals and Conservatives in statistical tie in Atlantic Canada ahead of 2019 election, while Green Party support rises.

  • Federal Liberals and Conservatives virtually tied in decided voter support.
  • Support for the Green Party surging across Atlantic Canada.
  • Satisfaction with the performance of the Liberal government led by Justin Trudeau declines to 41%, its lowest point since the Liberals took power.

HALIFAX June 5, 2019: The federal Liberal and Conservative parties are in a statistical tie in terms of decided voter support among Atlantic Canadians, while support for the Green Party is surging across the region, according to the most recent survey conducted by Narrative Research.

Ahead of a federal election expected later this year, decided voter support for the governing Liberals has declined for the second consecutive quarter and now stands at 39% (down from 49% in May 2018 and 47% in February 2019). Decided support for the federal Conservatives stands at 36% (compared with 29% in May 2018 and 35% in February).

For the first time ever, the federal Green Party has surpassed the New Democratic Party in decided support in this region. Support for the Greens has more than doubled over the past three months, reaching 14% (up from 5% in May 2018 and 6% in February). NDP support stands at 9% (down from 15% and 11%).

“The federal NDP is struggling to maintain its position as the third party of choice in Atlantic Canada, and findings suggest they could be replaced by the Greens as the main alternative to the Liberals or Conservatives,” says Margaret Brigley, CEO of Narrative Research.

On a province-by-province basis, the Liberals maintain their lead in Nova Scotia, and are in a statistical tie with the Conservatives in Newfoundland and Labrador. However, the Conservatives have overtaken the Liberals and hold the lead in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island.

Among the roughly one-third of Atlantic Canadians who are undecided or won’t say which party they plan to vote for, 18% are leaning towards the Liberals, 15% are leaning to the Conservatives, and 5% are leaning towards each of the Greens and the NDP, while 52% of this group remains either undecided (unable to offer a leaning preference) or refuses to state which party they are leaning towards.

Meanwhile, the share of Atlantic Canadians who are satisfied with the performance of the federal Liberal government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has declined to 41%, the lowest mark since the Liberals took power (down from 51% in May 2018 and 48% in February this year).

In terms of which party leader voters most prefer as prime minister, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is the preferred choice of 30% (down from 40% in May 2018 and 35% in February). Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer is the choice of 26% (compared to 22% and 26%), Green Leader Elizabeth May is the choice of 15% (up from 8% and 9%) and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is preferred by 9% (compared to 10% and 6%).

“Justin Trudeau’s leadership ratings continue to fall, and while Andrew Scheer has captured some of that support, his ratings appear to have stalled for now,” says Brigley. “It will be interesting to see if he and the Conservatives can build any additional momentum in this region, going into the election.”

These results are part of Narrative Research’s Atlantic Quarterly®, an independent, quarterly survey of Atlantic Canadians, and are based on a sample of 1500 adult Atlantic Canadians 18 years of age or older, conducted from May 6 to 24, 2019, with overall results accurate to within ± 2.5 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.

Narrative Research, www.narrativeresearch.ca, is one of Canada’s leading public opinion and market research companies. Founded in 1978, and formerly known as Corporate Research Associates, Narrative Research is dedicated to providing clients with state-of-the-art research and strategic consulting services. Follow us on Twitter @EveryNarrative

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For more information, please contact:

Margaret Brigley, CEO at (902) 493-3830, mbrigley@narrativeresearch.ca

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Amanda Bates